US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WAITING FOR OBL

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO 461

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Intel Net
Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – South Asia Analysis Group
www.southasiaanalysis.org

B.RAMAN

It is just one week before the US Presidential elections. We all know all that we want to know about the two candidates Senators John McCain of the Republican Party and Senator Barrack Obama of the Democratic Party. We also know what the American people think of them and their ideas for the future through the public opinion polls which, without an exception, predict voter approval for Obama and his ideas—-whether relating to the economy, the so-called war against terrorism or Iran’s nuclear programme.

2.But there is still a missing gap in our knowledge—what Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda think of the two candidates and their proposed policies. On the eve of the Presidential elections of 2004 (on October29,2004), Osama entered the pre-poll scene in the US with a video message to the American people, which poured scorn over American claims regarding the war. Commenting on his message, I wrote:
“As the date of the polls approached, there was feverish speculation as to whether Bush, helped by President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, would produce OBL before the American people like a magician producing a rabbit out of his hat and thereby make Kerry look silly and win a thumping victory. Instead of Bush producing OBL and embarrassing Kerry, it is OBL’s spin-masters who have produced him before the voters, making Bush, Kerry and everybody else in the US look silly and confused.” (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1155.html)

3. Is OBL planning a similar entry into the poll scene before the Americans vote? It will be out of keeping with him if he does not. Watch out during the days to come. Will he pour scorn over McCain and Bush just as Al Qaeda web sites are already doing? What will he say about the statements of Obama about his determination to hunt for OBL, even if he has to send the US troops into Pakistani territory to catch him—provided he has precise intelligence? Will he talk of what the jihadis in Pakistan and Afghanistan describe as the newly opened third front in the war—- in the Wall Street?

4. Or will the expected message fail to materialise? If it fails to come, that will be more significant than his message if it does come. Failure to materialise would mean that there is something wrong somewhere in the Pashtun belt from where OBL is stated to be operating. The US and the Asif Ali Zardari Government in Pakistan—-while pretending to criticise in open each other’s counter-terrorism policies—- have been secretly co-operating and co-ordinating their operations even more closely than was the case under Pervez Musharraf—- the US from the air through repeated air strikes by pilotless drones in the two Waziristans and through aerial surveillance and the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps on the ground in the Bajaur Agency and the Swat Valley.

5. It is apparent that the stepped up operations both by the Americans and the Pakistanis are not unrelated to the Presidential polls. If the Americans can get a high-value target such as OBL or his No.2 Ayman al-Zawahiri before the polls, it will not only redound to the credit of Bush before he leaves office, but could also benefit McCain, who is desperately trying to avert a seeming rout in the elections.

6. Al Qaeda’s foreign volunteers are on the run from village to village, from mosque to mosque and from madrasa to madrasa to protect themselves from the air strikes of the US and Pakistan. The war against terrorism has seen intense air strikes in Afghan territory from the beginning. Since Zardari’s meeting with Bush in New York in September, it has been seeing an intense wave of air strikes in Pakistani territory. US planes have been flying across Pakistani air space over the tribal belt as if they are flying in US air space without worrying about the proforma criticism from Pakistani leaders and officials and repeatedly attacking suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs. They have killed many, but not the ones that matter.

7. What stands between the US and OBL or Zawahiri is just luck and a little bit of advance intelligence. Both have eluded the US so far. For air strikes, the US has to be lucky only once. OBL and Zawahiri have to be lucky every time.

8. OBL must be constantly moving to deny that one stroke of luck to the US. How serious is the ground position for him? One will get an answer either way—whether his pre-poll message materialises or does not. (28-10-08)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Popularity: 32% [?]

EU courts Asia, banks on China

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Monday, October 27, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Susenjit Guha. All rights reserved.

By Susenjit Guha

European Commission President Jose Barroso, who is also a former prime minister of Portugal, urged China, India and Japan to “be on board” at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing over the weekend. “It’s very simple: we sink together or we swim together,” he said. Apparently exasperated at Europe’s traditional ties with the United States, he seemed eager for a new alliance. The need for a paradigm shift has come, to tackle the worst financial crisis to hit the globe in 70 years.

At the meeting of 40 leaders in Beijing, climate change and food security concerns were overshadowed by news of a continuing bloodbath of global stocks. Barosso urged countries to resist calls for economic nationalism and protectionism that would only hurt prospects for a recovery, and underlined the need to regulate the world’s markets.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted more transparent markets, stricter supervision and closer international cooperation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy wanted more radical change, seeking to rewrite the rulebook for international capitalism at next month’s meeting of world leaders in Washington. He asked for assistance from Asian governments.

The International Monetary Fund failed to provide advance warning of the impending implosion in the financial markets, and has been slow at responding to requests from affected nations.

Laissez-faire has proved to be grossly unfair, as the Wall Street meltdown is not only melting the tar on Main Street, freeways and country roads in the United States, but has clogged narrow streets and roundabouts in teeming Asia as well.

And why is the European Union worried? European capitals are in the grip of Obamania, hoping for a real change in the United States – and the way it is perceived around the world – with the presumed election of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama next month. But Obamania does not guarantee European support for more troops for NATO engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. Displeasure in Europe over U.S. unilateralism has been ratcheted up by the conduct of reckless financial institutions.

Positioned between the United States and the neighboring landmass of Asia, Europe needs to build bridges with the continent of the 21st century, Asia. As Barosso stressed at the ASEM meeting in Beijing, “We represent three-fifths of the world’s population and produce half of global GDP. Our combined action can and should make a real difference.”

Who other than China – even though Japan and India, the new kid on the block, were present – should take the lead in finding a solution to this crisis? With nearly US$2 trillion in currency reserves – more than Canada’s GDP – China is best positioned to step in. As Kim Eun Mee, professor of international studies at Ewha Women’s University in Seoul, South Korea, stressed, “Other ASEM nations have been calling for China to take a more leading role … to mediate a consensus among ASEM nations.”

Ahead of the Washington talks on Nov.15, China is being asked to ease its restrictions on banking, to prop up the strong yuan and to build a US$350 billion reserve firewall to protect the region’s currencies. Thailand wants this, and Citigroup Vice-President William Rhodes reiterated in the Financial Times that China was indispensable in solving this crisis.

But China’s leaders are wary of assuming so much responsibility at this stage of their country’s development, stressing that their first priority is raising the living standards of their own people.

Before the ASEM began, China, Japan and South Korea, along with 10 Southeast Asian nations, pledged a US$80 billion chest to stave off currency speculators, but no date was set for the launch of this fund.

The toxic sub-prime loan disaster has not hit China directly, but for the first time in five years growth has fallen to 9 percent as inflation creeps up. Exports, pivotal to China’s economic surge, will be affected as the U.S. and European economies continue to reel.

World leaders did their best to soften China up and bring Asia on board in an effort to introduce financial reforms at the Washington summit that would tackle the root causes of the crisis.

But judging by a commentary in the official newspaper, the People’s Daily, by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University, not everyone in China was impressed. Shi stopped

short of explaining how a non-convertible yuan could help, but said the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan should be the currencies used for trade between the European Union and Asia. He demanded a boycott of the U.S. dollar, lambasting the United States for protecting its own interests while other countries’ wealth drained away.

Awarding the Sakharov Prize for the defense of human rights to jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia one day before the Beijing summit was meant to remind the Asian dragon that Europe will continue to play the rights card, even if it has to court the dragon’s wealth.

Asia does not have even an EU-style semblance of solidarity, which may mean the various Asian governments will adopt different views on tackling the crisis, rather than uniting behind a European initiative. Of course, China will have its own way of doing business, taking the best and the worst of all worlds.

Time will tell if the overtures of a humane capitalistic Europe will be able to smother China, which cannot escape this financial crisis in the long run.

About the Author:

Susenjit Guha is a writer and journalist based in Kolkata, India. He contributes a weekly commentary and analysis for UPI Asia and has written on Indian and global political issues for such online publications as Online Opinion (Australia) and Foreign Policy in Focus (USA) and M.J Akbar (India).

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Author: Dmitry Fironov

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LOWS IN INDIA-SRI LANKA RELATIONS – OPPORTUNITY FOR TURN AROUND

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Sunday, October 26, 2008

© Copyright 2008 Malladi Rama Rao. All rights reserved.

By Malladi Rama Rao

Many commentators see in the present lows in the India-Sri Lanka relations a repeat of history – what had happened twenty one year ago, June 1987 to be precise, when President J R Jayewardene was in the midst of ‘Operation Liberation’ for Vadamarachchi. Delhi had airlifted a plane load of journalists to Rameswaram and sent them along with a ‘relief flotilla’ to Jaffna. Some of us, who were engrossed in catching up with the history of Rameswaram, missed the flotilla. The Indian diplomat, who was of the rank of a director in the foreign office, was amongst the ‘left out’. We caught up with the ‘journalists’ ship’ by hopping on to a barge.

Sri Lankan navy stopped the flotilla short of the maritime boundary. The Navy commander was very polite but did not mince words. “You cross the line. We will fire at you”, he told the Indian official, who, we felt, was not willing to take any risk what with so many journalists listening to them on the ‘open radio’. By the time the flotilla returned to the shores, it was past mid-night and we all missed our deadlines. Compensation of sorts came the next day afternoon by way of aerial food drop mission.

This incident comes back to mind because once again ‘humanitarian ‘ issues have become talking point in the India-Sri Lanka relations. And questions are being asked particularly in the Sri Lankan circles whether what had happened at the door step of Vadamarachchi will repeat at the gate way to Kilinochchi. India has not directly or indirectly asked Colombo to stop the Eelam War. Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagman has frankly conceded this point as recently as October 21 on the floor of Sri Lanka Parliament.

Vikitha Herath (JVP) asked him ‘what are the pressures created by India government on the Sri Lankan Government to stop the military operation against terrorism. Foreign Minister replied in the negative. Herath persisted (according to the transcript of the proceedings) by asking ‘What is the action taken by the Sri Lankan Government regarding such pressures’. Replied Bogollagama: “Doesn’t arise’. And categorically emphasized that the Government of Sri Lanka has not faced any kind of external pressure from any quarter regarding the operations by the security forces to defeat terrorism and disarm the LTTE.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa picked up the refrain the same day and it should have been sweet music to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Because the media and political verdict in Colombo is very harsh against him. Interacting with media heads and editors at Temple Trees, Rajapaksa said there was no demand from the Indian government to halt the military campaign when he spoke to Singh on telephone. A statement circulated later by President’s office said: “It is the primary responsibility of his government to look after all the citizens. He carries out this responsibility to the fullest especially with regard to the people who are temporarily displaced in the north, due to the ongoing military operations to defeat terrorism.’ The statement went on to quote President Rajapaksa to say, ‘There is a wrong impression created in Tamil Nadu that this not been done. This is furthest from the correct position. All these are our citizens and we take every measure to look after and provide for them.’

MISPLACED EUPHORIA

As some Colombo dailies noted, the tone was ‘conciliatory’. It was quite a contrast to the report aired on Sri Lankan Broadcasting Corporation’s main news bulletin on Oct 14. It reflected what has come to be identified as Sinhala-Buddhist euphoria and gave currency to the view that whatever be Tamilnadu compulsions and vote politics, Prime Minister Singh is a chicken in an elephant body and hence would like to do a Rajiv Gandhi. The all-party meeting convened by the President sent out the same message and declared its opposition to any Indian intervention.

Interestingly, at no point of the escalating Wanni war, India had called for an end to the military campaign. Its advice: try for a political solution which will be long lasting. And any solution should be within the frame work of unity and integrity of the island nation. This is what the Indian Prime Minister reiterated when Rajapaksa managed to speak to him last week end (after failing to meet him in New York on the sidelines of UNGA session).

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee elaborated the theme when he made a statement in Indian Parliament on Wednesday Oct 23. So much so, where is the question of India in general and Tamilnadu chief minister in particular orchestrating a campaign to bail out LTTE. In fact, any observer will agree that there is no change in the stand of Delhi and it is not music to Prabhakaran. That is why the high decibel propaganda emanating from Colombo that India is surrendering to the killers of her great son Rajiv is amusing to say the least.

Whatever be one’s political inclinations, it cannot be held against Karunanidhi that he is supporting the LTTE at the present juncture. The humanitarian concerns were first voiced by CPI, which is not known to be Tamil Chauvinist. Others including DMK chief picked up the issue. In all his recent public remarks, Karunanidhi only spoke about Tamils and Tamil race in the context of SL developments. “I am unable to sleep whenever I think of it. Let us avoid the racial genocide in Sri Lanka …”, he wrote in Murasoli, the DMK mouth piece.

One may turn around and ask what about his ‘ultimatum’ to Delhi and threat to withdraw his MPs if Delhi doesn’t act by Oct 28. It should be remembered that Indian Parliament has entered its slog overs with the talk of general election in early February. To that extent, Karunanidhi’s threat doesn’t hurt Manmohan Singh and influence his government’s policies.

Any how, there is continuity in India’s foreign policy whoever is in power in Delhi. It may be recalled Jayalalithaa Jayaram of AIADMK as the TN chief minister led a delegation to then Prime Minister Vajpayee on Sri Lanka issue. And the BJP led government articulated India’s concerns just the way the Congress led government is doing now. In other words, unlike in other democracies, India’s foreign policy is based on national consensus and is not dictated by coalition blues

DELHI-CHENNAI WAVELENGTH

Will Karunanidhi execute his threat spurred by his own local concerns in Tamilnadu? One intelligent guess is that he will not. His close aide T R Baalu, who is also a minister in Manmohan Singh government, has already said that they (DMK) have no intention to bring down the government. “We are not doing anything to help or save the LTTE. We only want to help the orphaned Tamils”, he said in Chennai.

Put differently, there is not much of a difference between Chennai and Delhi on issues related to Sri Lanka. There is a clear distinction between LTTE and ethnic Tamils wherever they may be living in the island nation.

India has umpteen options to make Sri Lanka realise that it is but an island by itself in today’s global village. Yet it chose to be the true friend in need, and not an adversity in distress. It also ignored Colombo’s half baked attempts to bring in other players into the SL theatre. That is not because of any magnanimity but because India knows its backyard and knows, if it comes to crunch, how to protect its interests and influence without much ado.

Obviously, most mainstream politicians and commentators in Sri Lanka have horribly failed to read the TN pulse and the Indian mood. They allowed themselves to be straight jacketed as before and started indulging in cheap talk like why not Colombo also fund fringe terror movements across India. And got carried away by pseudo-nationalism.

Like Sarath Fonseka, for instance. Since he is an army commander, the government, if not the defence minister, should have ‘checked’ his excessive exuberance. That did not happen.

A quiet requiem has been said for APRC and to the much talked about devolution package. There are enough signals that the ruling party will like to ride over the crest of Wanni war euphoria and secure a 2/3 majority in Parliament. Politicians have a tendency not to look beyond the immediate. They also tend to be economical in what they say and do as is the case now when a major humanitarian problem is rocking the north of their own country.

It defies logic why Colombo needed to be reminded of the heavy costs in terms of human suffering in the course of latest military campaign. The 2, 70, 000 Tamils caught in the conflict zone are Sri Lankans first and foremost.

Till Chennai first and then Delhi spoke up for these hapless people, Colombo refused to acknowledge their plight. Otherwise, it would not have ordered the exit of international relief workers (except the Red Cross).

It should have corrected its act when Sri Lanka was voted out of the Human Rights body of the United Nations. And worked to win over the Northern Tamils and removed their mistrust of the government agencies, the armed forces in particular. An element of empathy with them is essential as they are caught between the might of the state and the gun power of a non-state player. Turning ire on NGOs accusing them of indulging in anti-Sinhala propaganda doesn’t help.

TIME TO ACT

The situation in Sri Lanka is the subject of a recent debate in the British Parliament. The Minister for International Development, Michael Foster termed the situation as grave. As the intensity of fighting has risen, the space in which humanitarian agencies could operate has been constricted, he said, virtually echoing the sentiments of Delhi. Both he and members who took part in the debate were concerned over restrictions on the press in Sri Lanka as well as ‘harassment, physical attacks and even assassination’ of innocent persons.

Suffice to say, humanitarian concerns are something no civilised society can afford to ignore. It is not an issue that should be used to score political points either at home or across the Palk Strait in India. Instead of anti- Indian sentiment, what is needed is Colombo, Chennai and Delhi working together to help an estimated 150,000-200,000 people in the uncleared areas. Relief to them should not be tied to end of Wanni war. Firstly because, the LTTE is reportedly preventing them from coming down south. Secondly because, an end to the war is still not in sight (at the time of writing this article).

A senior SL politician (who is still around and active in the power circuit), once told me India is like an old lady whom Colombo should keep telling that she is looking beautiful. We both laughed at the analogy. That was three years back. I don’t know whether the government in Colombo subscribes to this view. What is however essential is that neither India nor Sri Lanka should make an enemy of each other.

About the Author

Malladi Rama Rao is an analyst and writer on the Indian political scene and geo-political and security issues of South Asia. He directs a Weekly Feature Service in English, Syndicate Features, in colloboration with his wife Vaniram. He is also the India Editor of Asian Tribune.

SYNDICATE FEATURES

B-308, Puneet Apts. B-10, Vasundhara Enclave, Delhi; Ph -22617660 E-mail: syndicatefeatures@rediffmail.com

Popularity: 17% [?]

China Threatens neighbors in South China Sea

Global Geopolitics Net Sites
Friday, October 24, 2008

© Copyright 2008 James Crickton. All rights reserved.

By James Crickton*

London: With the Olympics behind now, China has begun flexing its muscles to brow beat its neighbors to fall in line or face the music. Serious concerns have been expressed, especially by Vietnam, over the recent intense activities of the Chinese Navy in and around the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea.

Chinese naval vessels have adopted threatening postures to mount pressure against Vietnamese oil exploration activities in and around the disputed islands for alleged violation of Chinese territorial waters. The Vietnamese Government, however, held that oil exploration was undertaken within their continental shelf and the EEZ. Exxon Mobil, which entered into a joint exploration agreement with PetroVietnam, had been forced to terminate their activity around Spratly islands following Chinese threats.

A Norwegian ship, hired by Vietnam, for oil exploration was intercepted by the Chinese naval ships and threatened to fire unless it leaves the disputed area in the South China sea region.
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Popularity: 13% [?]

CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR—NOTE 2

Global Geopolitics Net Sites – Global Politics Online
Friday, October 24, 2008

Copyright © B. Raman – Chennai Center for China Studies
www.c3sindia.org

B.RAMAN

( What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the
other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the
negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been brInging out a periodic “Chinese Economy Monitor” based on open information. This is the second in the series—B.Raman)

INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES, SAYS HU

At the start of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) Summit in Beijing on October 24,2008, President Hu Jintao of China said: “The fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not changed. However, the global financial crisis has noticeably increased the uncertainties and factors for instability in China’s economic development.We are now confronted with many difficulties and challenges in our economic endeavours.China must first and foremost run its own affairs well. In the light of the changing domestic and international financial situation, we will make our macroeconomic regulatory measures more proactive, focused and effective and make timely adjustments to our policies.We will vigorously expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, maintain economic financial stability and the stability of capital markets, and continue to promote sound and fast economic and social development.”
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Popularity: 12% [?]